Lourenço Czernin

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Just say no

What has saying “No” have to do with investment?

EVERYTHING.

Because the quality of our yes’ is determined by the quantity of our no’s.

This week I read a post that asked: “You got promoted. Now what?”

And it reminded me of how I said no to a big promotion last year, which eventually led to me leaving the Air Force.

Am I suggesting you say no to your next promotion? Not at all.

Am I defending that not all “investment opportunities” are worth your time? Absolutely.

Some context…

It’s March 2022, and I had been transferred to the Basic Instruction Squadron just one year ago. During this time with my Squadron Commander and a team of 12 instructors, we upgraded all the qualifications in the Squadron and graduated 8 new pilots, who had taken nearly 2 years to graduate (instead of the expected 9 months).

We knew something wasn’t working. It wasn’t anybody’s fault, but what had worked in the last 20 years could use some improvement. We took on the challenge and found support at the Wing level leadership to make it happen.

Nothing worthwhile can be done alone.

Finding the right partners and supporters is paramount for long-term success. You might go faster alone, but you get further together. A whole new syllabus had to be designed and ready to implement in just 3 months. Did we invent the wheel? Of course not. We took something tested and proven and adapted to our reality. 

We also “failed” the 3-month timeline, but after all, covid was still a thing, I had a pregnant wife at home and 3 kids with schools closed for nearly 2 months. You can imagine the challenge of bringing this one home.

I wanted to quit many times, but we made it happen through great team players and leadership support.

By the end of March: we have a meeting with the top Air Force leadership, and our proposal was a success. It was a great victory for everyone involved since we would implement a new idea that would cut the course in half while maintaining the same degree of demand required to be a proficient military pilot. Not to mention overall money saved for the taxpayers.

During that meeting, I learned that I was going to be promoted to Squadron Commander. It was a great honor and a tremendous recognition for the work done during the previous year.

How can you decline this?

Being a Squadron Commander for a military pilot means you will lead a team of 101+ people, pilots, officers, non-commissioned officers, and airmen. You get to do this while maintaining flying duties; this is as good as it gets for many.

For me, it didn’t feel right, more like an endless to-do list, which was unbearable. My wife was 8 months pregnant, and our eldest daughter had just turned 5. I was choosing between incompetence in my new assignment, absence at home, or burnout.

Those just weren’t acceptable options for me. Nobody could understand, even I couldn’t fully understand it. I just felt it wasn't my place.

If I had said yes to that promotion, I would say yes to:

  1. A great honor.

  2. Reaping the fruits of the work laid down in the previous year.

  3. My ego, by feeling important.

But I would also say no to:

  1. Quality time with my family.

  2. Freedom of choice in my career.

  3. An opportunity to exponentiate my talents.

This led to me saying no to the promotion, which led to the next obvious step: leaving the Air Force. This allowed me to focus on learning, growth, networking, and ultimately creating my company without sacrificing time with my family.

How does this relate to our investment decisions? 

Our funds, wealth, or assets are, by default, limited in time and space. We might be able to maximize return, but we can’t be in two places at the same time. This is due to the laws of nature.

Whenever we allocate our assets to an endeavor, we can’t allocate them to another. The greater your wealth, the more choices are available. But you will always have to choose; that’s the essence of our life. And the quality of our choices determines the quality of our life, which is also true for our investing decisions.

Choices are the essence of life.

You make better decisions whenever you consider both the yes and the no as two sides of the same coin. With practice, you will also learn to predict the opposing no or yes better.

If we did this, perhaps we would consider saying no more often, which would allow for YES when it matters. But no’s are hard to give. This happens for many reasons, from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) to our basic needs of certainty, variability, significance, connection, growth, or contribution. 

It helps to understand what we say yes to and how these decisions support our needs. It’s also important to train your NO muscle frequently, starting with seemingly small and unimportant decisions.

That way, when the big times come, you have learned to say no.

The market is sinking, sell!!

But you know better, and you stick to your choices, you’ve done the research, and you say no to fear. You say yes to greed because stocks are getting cheap, and this is the time to buy at adequate or even bargain levels.

Or perhaps you say yes to bonds when everyone is screaming inflation and rate hikes while saying no to company valuations at 100x plus of their earnings.

This is not investment advice.

You should make your own investment decisions. But learning to think and act like a contrarian will open the door to new possibilities in life.

Here are two questions that will exponentiate the quality of your decisions:

  1. What am I saying no to with my yes?

  2. What if I’m wrong?

Perhaps you can remember and start saying NO more often.

Peace and Goodness, my friend.

Lourenço Czernin